Two for one. One for me, zero for you. Forex trading idea.

The mathematics of the headline to this article makes no sense, and its not supposed to (wich im hoping you've figured out by now). The headline - "Two for one. One for me, zero for you" is a screener, an edge, a filosophy or whatever you choose to call it. It basicly meens that when a trader makes a decision based on the fact that he needs to make twice as much as he's risking, i will win and he will loose.

This hypothesis is based on my general edge to the market - 80% of retail traders loose Money, find out what they do and do the exact opposite. One of the things they do are trying to find companionship amongs other traders that are just as bad (as mentioned in the last article about the "We phenomena"). Another phenomena is the absolute fixation with positive risk/reward ratios. Trader Dante mentions his views on risk/reward on the pod Chat with traders, and thats where my idea of taking advantage of this fixation came from.

Does this meen that a positive risk/reward ratio is a bad thing? No, of course not, its a great statistical edge that many successful traders use. However, when a lot of traders are so fixated with their risk/reward ratio that they only look for trades that gives them that positive ratio, they get easy to hunt down because of the fact that if they can see a good two for one trade, so can i. And since i know that 80% of them will loose, ill know exactly where they will loose and where the market is likely to stop them out.

This is not a strategy that tells me exactly when and how to take my own trades, it does not have clear entry levels nor does it give me a good point to close my position when im wrong. Its more of an idea that the market gives me opportunities when everyone else thinks they have the golden opportunity. My own position management when taking a trade based on this idea is depending on the market enviroment of that day/week.

The concept is narrowed down to this:
Find levels where its obvious that a lot of traders are going to take position based on that its a ”nice risk/reward trade”
Wait for it to hit the level and react to it.
Counter trade the reaction.

This type of approach to the market is what made me profitable.
Avoid chasing the succesfull traders strategies and instead focus beeing contrarian towards the loosing side.

EURUSD 4 hour chart.

EURUSD 4 hour chart, still looking for a run towards the purple box. However it seems to be testing off the supply Before moving downwards. Some good intraday long opportunities in play.

Oil CL_F Technical analysis Weekly chart.

CL_F has good potential for some intraday shorting opportunities hence the fact that its running into resistance in terms of price and RSI. Im quite bullish Oil long term however, but for now ill be looking for some shorts on lower time frames. Keep an Eye out for tomorrows Inventories.

Oil

The We phenomena in forex and financial analysis.

The We phenomena.

”If We break this level, i belive We will visit this level”

The following quote could be copied from 90% of the retail analysis blogs, tweets and other ”analysis friendly” posting platforms online today. This may seem as an encouraging approach towards the analysts readers, wich it most likely is ment to be. However, when the analyst claims that We will go this way or that way, the reader and the writer himself is more likely to imagine that he is not alone on the trade and that his bias is confirmed.

This is a very dangerous phenomena for new traders to get mezmerised by and talked into. Because everyone with the slightest experience of trading the financial markets knows this - there are no such thing as We, there are no such thing as Us and there are no such thing as You and Me. This is a game where the majority of weak participants loose everything going up against the big boys. So when your staring down at your charts or reading the earnings report, the feeling of beeing part of a team or a ”We” is only going to fill out the gaps of your insecurities. It does not matter if you are trying to make other people beeing part of your team or if that feeling is handed to you by another market participant, those types of feelings should be avoided.

Im not saying that everyone that includes the term We in an analysis is wrong in their actual analysis.  We all know that to be a good analyst you dont have go be an extraordinary trader. And im not saying that anyone has ever used this to trick or fool their viewer, i belive the term is used with genuinly good (and unconscious) intentions. However, the lack of knowledge in regards to the fact that trading is a ”one man army” war should give you a slight heads up that the person posting the analysis might not be that million dollar trader that he (sometimes) claims to be, or (if you use the term in your own posted analysis) that you are not the million dollar trader that you want to be.

Instead you should embrace the fact that trading is lonley and that there are no such thing as you and me, only you vs. me.

DAX $DAX intraday potential trade.

DAX showing a potential intraday shorting opportunity, given the recent SP500 weekly post this might be a good trade. 

DAX

SP500 $SPX weekly timeframe analysis. Room for some intraday shorting.

Im not bearish stocks at all. But given this chart on the SP500 theres some room for some intraday shorting on lower time frames. 

SP500

TSLA weekly chart technical analysis.

TSLA is falling hard atm. Im looking at a scenario where the stock keeps falling towards the red line and pauses for a short moment, then pushes through for a squeeze. Fundamentally its not looking Bright either wich gives some support to this technical view.

TSLA

EURUSD intraday 1h.

EURUSD intraday call from yesterday is still in play but could ignore testing recent resistans (blue box) and go straight for the stop run (Purple box). Either way im certain recent major low will be broken sooner or later and thats when i'll buy.

NIO Technical analysis Weekly chart.

NIO has a lot of upside potential (into supply zone (red box)) if a weekly Close above red line is to be seen.

USDJPY intraday 1h chart.

USDJPY needs to roll over soon or the bigger time frame call will get weaker. 

ETHUSD Technical analysis

Another crypto chart. ETHUSD has a bit more to go Before running into resistance and supply. Break of the red box should determine if the market has decided to go higher or not.

ETHUSD

EURUSD intraday 1 hour chart.

EURUSD stacking up stop losses below bigger low on higher timeframe. Im looking for a move up intraday Before chasing taking those stops.

EURUSD

Bitcoin technical analysis

Im not a big fan of crypto. But this Bitcoin chart is interesting. Todays break into and beyond the liquidity past recent tops indicated a push higher IF the price stays above the blue line within the next week or so.

BTCUSD

Supply demand GBPUSD USDJPY Technical analysis

GBPUSD broken bullish momentum, theres room for a test of the bearish breaking base Before moving lower.

GBPUSD

USDJPY also with a broken bullish momentum and a test of bearish breaking base. Not sure if its going to hold though, move up looks strong.

USDJPY

EURUSD and CNHUSD daily chart.

EURUSD Daily looking for a stoprun on previous low Before going after next liquidity pool.

EURUSD analysis

CNHUSD has broken upward momentum and is testing bearish base supply, expecting a move towards supply in green box at least.

DAX Daily chart.

DAX has a potential move downwards. A test of the previous RSI high will show if the bearish move should happend or not. Blue line is target price (1) based on supply and demand.